It's gonna start turning southwest at the west end of Grand Bahama.
At this point there is absolutely no reason to think it's going to turn north at all.
It will directly hit somewhere on the east Florida coast, the only question is where.
https://i.imgur.com/Kjy0iJL.png
The distance between the hurricane and that outer band only suggests it's going to get bigger and keep heading west-southwest.
It's gonna clip the west side of Grand Bahama heading west-southwest...
Then it's gonna hook around and hit straight into Florida and go up the coastline with more of the storm on land than in water.
That's my take on it currently.
So their models now have it getting close to the coast by Daytona...
Which means it'll probably be a direct hit somewhere well south of that area.
Lookner is a great reporter.
Quote:I’m sorry, but #Dorian is not running parallel to the LAT. It has a very minute southerly component to it. Hope I’m dead wrong. (And yes I understand that there is usually a “wobble” but didn’t see one in this loop).
https://twitter.com/ARomero_WX/status/11...1197447168
Look at this shit...
Quote:Here is a long duration animation loop from early this morning to this evening.
https://twitter.com/RadarOmega_WX/status...9874881537
Look at all the shit that just pops up out of nowhere between 0:10 - 0:11.
This total monster is coming straight at Florida and that's all there is to it.
Look how intact that eyewall is...
Fucking unbelievable.
It's expanding and wrapping downward... west-southwest.
Look at all the energy it's still taking from the Gulf... massive fueling happening right now.
Tons of severe weather even aside from the hurricane will start taking place now in Florida.
It's my guess that it will start pulling south now in a big way...
I think it will start going markedly south for a time, but then turn for a direct hit circa West Palm Beach.
Now it looks like it'll be a cat. 4 wherever it hits.
Could go down to a cat. 3 if mercy is shown.
It's like it took all the heat of the Gulf after sunset and it's been wrapping around it in bands ever since.
Again, I ain't no scientist person but...
That's the best I can describe it.
That Gulf system was determined to fuel Dorian west-southwest no matter what.
Dorian essentially cannibalized that Gulf system.